538 polls

Category : 538 polls

A copy of this data and descriptions for each column can also be found in pollster-stats-full. Descriptions for each column are in the table below. Skip to content. Branch: master. Create new file Find file History.

Latest commit. Latest commit 1aef Nov 5, Note that different sources define these categories differently and our categorization will often reflect the original source's definition. In other words, these definitions may be inconsistent and should be used carefully.

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Where missing, this is estimated from the poll's margin of error, or similar polls conducted by the same polling firm. A sample size of is used if no better estimate is available. Candidates 1 and 2 are defined as the top two finishers in the election regardless of whether or not they were the top two candidates in the poll. In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate 1 is the Democrat and simply listed as "Democrat".

In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic lead; negative values a Repubican lead.

538's Nate Silver on early 2020 polls versus fundraising: Which matter more?

In races between a Democrat and a Republican, positive values indicate a Democratic win; negative values a Republican win. This is calculated only for races in which the top two finishers were a Democrat and a Republican. Positive values indicate a Democratic bias the Democrat did better in the poll than the election.

Negative values indicate a Republican bias. A 1 indicates a correct call and a 0 an incorrect call; 0. You signed in with another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session. You signed out in another tab or window. Update pollster ratings.

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Jun 2, May 30, Pollster ratings Nov 5, Sample size of the poll. Name of Candidate 1. Name of Candidate 2. In races where a Democrat and a Republican were the top two finishers, Candidate 2 is the Republican and simply listed as "Republican".

Share of the vote for the top candidate listed in the poll, other than Candidate 1 and Candidate 2. Projected margin of victory defeat for Candidate 1. Actual margin in the election. Absolute value of the difference between the actual and polled result. Statistical bias of the poll. Flag to indicate whether the pollster called the outcome correctly, i.Nate Silver and the FiveThirtyEight team cover the latest in politics, tracking the issues and "game-changers" every week.

Listen on Apple Podcasts. What has the United States done to ensure elections continue during past crises and what can the country do now to ensure this fall's election goes smoothly? Now that Democrats have settled on Joe Biden, the crew discusses their priors for the presidential general election. The crew reacts to Sen.

Bernie Sanders's decision to suspend his campaign for president. They also take stock of where we are in the arc of the crisis. Check out the documentary media malpractice or talk to the average black person in America? There were so many first time voters because they wanted to vote for first African American President!

Jerry meandering, women in politics, model talk, etc. Just reporters talking about things, often out of their depth. Apple Podcasts Preview. Customer Reviews See All. Pod Save America. Crooked Media. Hold These Truths with Dan Crenshaw. Dan Crenshaw. John Solomon Reports. John Solomon. The Rush Limbaugh Show.As the focus of the impeachment affair moves to the U.

While there is a small increase in the number of people who believe Trump did, in fact, attempt to coerce Ukraine into investigating his political rival, that shift does not translate to changing attitudes on the inappropriateness of his actions. A key consideration of why public opinion is not moving on impeachment may be the upcoming elections.

538 polls

Regarding the Republican defense of Trump, that Ukraine attempted to meddle in the elections, less than a third of Americans appear to believe this to be the case including only about a quarter of Republicans. Washington, DC, November 19, - Ipsos and FiveThirtyEight have just launched the first wave of our ground-breaking tracker of public opinion around the Trump impeachment saga. This survey, using the Ipsos KnowledgePanel, will follow the same nationally representative group of Americans for the next three months to track if, when, and how Americans change their minds on the facts underlying the Trump impeachment inquiry.

In our first wave of research, we find that a majority of Americans believe President Trump has committed an impeachable offense although this study does not ask about removing him from office and are following the hearings closely. Furthermore, most Americans believe that President Trump did engage in most of the alleged actions asking for an investigation of Biden, withholding aid, and covering up information.

Additionally, majorities believe that if these things occurred, they are inappropriate. This poll is based on a nationally-representative probability-based sample of 2, adults age 18 or older. A general population sample of US adults was selected for this study and, to ensure a sufficient sample size among independents, was supplemented with an oversample of adults who had previously identified as Independents or had no preference for any one political party.

The study weights, as described in further detail below, adjusted for this oversample using party identification benchmarks from ABC News so that results reflect the general population of US adults. The first wave of this poll was based on a nationally-representative probability-based sample of 2, adults age 18 or older and included a general population sample of US adults as well as an oversample of Independents and those with no party preference to ensure a sufficient sample size among them.

Wave 2 was fielded to all who completed Wave 1 and had 1, completes. Wave 3 was also fielded to all who completed Wave 1 and had 1, completes. Wave 6 was fielded to all who completed wave 1 and had 1, completes. The survey was conducted using KnowledgePanel, the largest and most well-established probability-based online panel that is representative of the adult US population.

Our recruitment process employs a scientifically developed addressed-based sampling methodology using the latest Delivery Sequence File of the USPS — a database with full coverage of delivery points in the US. Households are randomly sampled and all persons in the selected households are invited to join and participate in the panel.

Ipsos provides selected households who do not already have internet access with a tablet and internet connection at no cost to the panel member.

538 polls

Those who join the panel and who are selected to participate in a survey are sent a unique password-protected log-in used to complete surveys online. As a result of our recruitment and sampling methods, samples from KnowledgePanel cover all households regardless of their phone or internet status and findings can be reported with a margin of sampling error and projected to the general population.

The study was conducted in both English and Spanish.

'FiveThirtyEight' Statistician Nate Silver Reports On The 2016 Election

The data were weighted to adjust for gender by age, race, education, Census region, metropolitan status, and household income. The demographic benchmarks came from the March supplement of the U. Due to the oversampling of Independents and those with no party preference, the data were also weighted to adjust for party identification. The weighting categories were as follows:. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2.

The margin of sampling error takes into account the design effect, which was 1. The margin of sampling error is higher and varies for results based on sub-samples. In our reporting of the findings, percentage points are rounded off to the nearest whole number. Our passionately curious research professionals, analysts and scientists have built unique multi-specialist capabilities that provide true understanding and powerful insights into the actions, opinions and motivations of citizens, consumers, patients, customers or employees.

We serve more than clients across the world with 75 business solutions. Join the Ipsos public polling team for a monthly briefing on the data trends shaping the election.Skip to this video now.

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Play Video. Nate Silver: Low odds Tom Steyer breaks through in crowded race. Now Playing: Cuomo responds to Trump's criticisms. Now Playing: Roosevelt Navy captain awaits his fate. Now Playing: President Trump threatening to bypass Congress. Now Playing: President Trump to unveil reopening guidelines.

Now Playing: Rep. Justin Amash nearing decision on presidential run. Now Playing: White House plays defense after new criticisms. Now Playing: Some states could reopen before May 1: Trump. Now Playing: Chris Christie says Trump's coronavirus press briefings should be shorter.

Now Playing: Is Trump ignoring the Constitution? All rights reserved. Nate Silver analyzes the significance of fundraising in the Democratic primary. Related Extras. Related Videos. Video Transcript.

The Polls Close In New Hampshire l FiveThirtyEight

Transcript for 's Nate Silver on early polls versus fundraising: Which matter more? Debate number two for the Democrats is next week. A few got shut out thanks to polling and fund-raising thresholds set by the DNC. This week, campaigns also filed their fund-raising reports for the second quarter. This week we want to dig into the question, how much does fund-raising really matter at this stage?

Here's fivethirtyeight's Nate silver. So let me give you two words -- Jeb Bush.

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Yes, bush's funding came from outside groups. Whereas Democrats mayor buttigieg and Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren raised a lot of money from smaller donors which is more sustainable.Silver analyzes polls and predicts election outcomes on his website, FiveThirtyEight.

This year's is "maybe the most fascinating nomination race that we've ever seen," he says. With so many political polls coming out, it's hard to evaluate which are most accurate and how much weight we should give them in predicting winners, which is why so many people turn to Nate Silver for his polling analysis.

He's a statistician who's famous for founding the website FiveThirtyEight, which analyzes polls based on accuracy and methodology, aggregates polls and forecasts outcomes. Inhe correctly called all 35 Senate races and the winners of the presidential contests in 49 of 50 states. There's a new "FiveThirtyEight" podcast in which Silver and other reporters from the site analyze polls and primary outcomes and talk politics. In addition to political polls, the site reports on science and health, economics, culture and sports.

Polls are supposed to measure public opinion. But do you think political polls also sway public opinion?

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There is evidence of something called the bandwagon effect, which is people like to be associated with a winner. Donald Trump, I think, knows this effect well. Or when you go to any one of his speeches and he spends literally half the speech talking about how great his polls are here and there. He stopped that a little bit after Iowa, but I'm sure he'll start it back up now after he won New Hampshire. So there is some of that.

I would say, though, it's more prevalent in the primary than the general election. The reason being in the primary you have multiple candidates. Until recently, you had 17 Republican candidates. People usually like several of those candidates, and they have to coordinate and decide - which one of the six Republicans I really like, should I vote for?

And it's usually the guy - probably a guy on the Republican side, especially, who's up in the polls. I mean, maybe I like Jim Gilmore, the former governor Virginia. But if I know that only 0. Are voting for him, I'm not really having much of an impact with my vote, whereas choosing between Trump and Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush - that will have quite an effect on where the delegates go in my state and how the results are interpreted as we go into other states.

Most people don't know the difference between a good poll and a bad poll, an accurate poll and a poorly done poll. Do you think bad polls have a bad effect? And you have a lot of bad polls who are dependent upon the good polls to even be remotely accurate. So what they'll do is they'll say well, we have some bad data. Maybe we used a Robo Dialer.FiveThirtyEightsometimes rendered asis a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. The website, which takes its name from the number of electors in the United States electoral college[ 1] was founded on March 7, as a polling aggregation website with a blog created by analyst Nate Silver.

During the presidential primaries and general election of the site compiled polling data through a unique methodology derived from Silver's experience in sabermetrics to "balance out the polls with comparative demographic data".

Since the election, the site has published articles—typically creating or analyzing statistical information—on a wide variety of topics in current politics and political news. These included a monthly update on the prospects for turnover in the Senate ; federal economic policies; Congressional support for legislation; public support for health care reformglobal warming legislation and LGBT rights ; elections around the world; marijuana legalization ; and numerous other topics.

The site and its founder are best known for election forecasts, including the presidential election in which FiveThirtyEight correctly predicted the vote winner of all 50 states. During its existence, FiveThirtyEight won numerous awards. The website's logo depicts a fox in reference to a phrase attributed to Archilochus : "The fox knows many things, but the hedgehog knows one big thing". When Silver started FiveThirtyEight in early Marchhe published under the name Poblano, the same name that he had used since November when he began publishing a diary on the political blog Daily Kos.

FiveThirtyEight gained further national attention for beating out most pollsters' projections in the North Carolina and Indiana Democratic party primaries on May 6, As Mark Blumenthal wrote in National Journal"Over the last week, an anonymous blogger who writes under the pseudonym Poblano did something bold on his blog, FiveThirtyEight.

He posted predictions for the upcoming primaries based not on polling data, but on a statistical model driven mostly by demographic and past vote data Critics scoffed.

Most of the public polls pointed to a close race in North Carolina But a funny thing happened. The model got it right. On May 30,Silver revealed his true identity for the first time to his FiveThirtyEight readers. As the primary season was coming to an end, Silver began to build a model for the general election race. This model, too, relied in part on demographic information but mainly involved a complex method of aggregating polling results.

InRasmussen Reports had an apparently short-term partnership with FiveThirtyEight in order to include this unique methodology for generating poll averages in their "Balance of Power Calculator". By early OctoberFiveThirtyEight approached 2.

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Much like Grantlandwhich ESPN launched inthe site will retain an independent brand sensibility and editorial point-of-view, while interfacing with other websites in the ESPN and Disney families.Has this Media Source failed a fact check?

These sources are generally trustworthy for information, but may require further investigation.

538 polls

See all Left-Center sources. FiveThirtyEightsometimes referred to asis a website that focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. Read our profile on United States government and media. The website is funded through online advertising.

538 polls

In review, FiveThirtyEight is different from other polling sources in that they do not conduct the polls, but rather deeply analyze other polls and apply a strict methodology to determine accuracy. For example, Real Clear Politics simply takes the averages of all polls to come up with a score, whereas uses weights on each individual poll based on demographics and much more. In general, tends to stick to poll related news, but when discussing politics, they usually slightly favor the left through story selection and wording.

A factual search reveals that FiveThirtyEight has never failed a fact check. Overall, we rate FiveThirtyEight Left-Center Biased based on story selection that slightly favors the left, but does not favor the progressive left. We also rate them High for factual reporting due to proper sourcing of information, a solid record with poll analysis and a clean fact check record. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email.



23.09.2020 at 10:12 pm

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